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Ballpark turnaround
4.2 min
Was 1–4 days before AI estimating
25.0% lower than the previous period
Estimate accuracy
94.2%
Against ±15% target band
3.2% higher than the previous period
Avg realized margin
28.4%
Trailing 12 months, all verticals
2.5% higher than the previous period
Win rate
62%
Quoted programs converted to PO
6.9% higher than the previous period
Avg time per stage
Ballpark
1.2d
BoM
2d
Vendor quotes
5.1d
Detailed
1.4d
Pipeline funnel
Ballpark value = target price × qty · Detailed Estimates: Morphe @ $215.44 × 115
Win rate vs CM band
Projects of similar scope win most often when CM is 26–28.5%. Win probability drops materially above 29% CM.
Sales outcomes (24 mo)
Won
$1.18M
7 programs
Lost
$214K
1 (Charlotte Tilbury — priced 29.9% CM)
wins cluster 26–28.5% CM
Market Intelligence
Market Comparison Engine
Acrylic 6mm▲3.9%
Steel fabrication▼1.2%
LED + drivers▲2%
China→US ocean freight▼6.9%
Domestic labor▲3.1%
Corrugated▲0.8%
Warning
Acrylic +6.2% — 14 open estimates affected; recommend re-check of BoMs quoted before June.
AI Insight
VE opportunity: switching brushed-gold trim to painted finish saves ~7% material on premium Beauty fixtures.
Vendor health
Approved vendors
7
Best quote accuracy
±0.6%
Precision Retail USA
Avg accuracy across vendors: ±2.9%
Quote accuracy ranking
Precision Retail USA
±0.6%
Duraco
±1.1%
Shenzhen DisplayWorks
±1.4%
Guangzhou Fixture Group
±7.4%
Guangzhou: 2 late responses
Demand planning
PPF72%→ 75%
UNC58%→ 66%
CHI84%→ 91%
Outsourced partners
China76%
Domestic61%
from open ballparks & estimates