OUTFORM

Analytics

A.Estimating performance

How fast and how accurately the team estimates — targets from the platform business case.

Ballpark turnaround (min avg)

was 1–4 days before the platform · 24 mo trend

Estimate accuracy vs ±15% target band

91.8% → 94.2% of estimates inside band · 24 mo trend

Estimator consistency (variance %)

4.8% today vs 15–25% pre-platform baseline · 24 mo trend

Time per stage (days)

Vendor quotes flagged as the bottleneck

Vendor quotes 5.1d — bottleneck

Ballpark vs final detailed accuracy

±15% target cone shaded; each point is a historical program

Ballparks average 3.6% under final — 0.0% across 8 historical programs.

Estimator consistency by person (variance vs peer mean)

gray bar shows the pre-platform baseline

B.Pricing & win/loss

Where target prices, recommended prices and realized margin diverge across open jobs and programs.

Win rate by CM band

Cliff at 29% CM — wins cluster 26–28.5%

Above 29% CM win rate falls to 31% and below.

Win rate by Perceived Value class

premium classes win less often but at higher margin

Realized margin by class vs matrix target

Gray bracket = matrix target range

Commoditytarget 4045% · realized 42.1%
Structuredtarget 4550% · realized 46.3%
Urgenttarget 5060% · realized 52.8%
Complextarget 5565% · realized 51.2%

Complex below band — see lost Charlotte Tilbury program.

Loss reasons

8 tracked opportunities, 24 months

  • Price62%
  • Timeline23%
  • Capability15%
Target vs recommended price (open jobs)

green = headroom to raise price, red = recommended is above target — drops off once the estimate is initiated

TCL target $1000 vs recommended $508 (+97% headroom) · Dior target $520 vs recommended $565 (-8% gap) · Givenchy pending

Morphe margin waterfall ($ per unit)

cost build-up to final price — final bar is the price

Final price $0.00

C.Vendors

Response speed, quote accuracy and delivery reliability by vendor.

Quote accuracy ranking (± %)

lower is better

RFQ response time (days)

Duraco is the slowest responder

Spend by vendor (24 mo, $M)

from vendor scorecards

On-time delivery (6 mo)

one row per vendor — trailing six months

Precision96%
Shenzhen95%
Shanghai92%
Guangzhou83%
Kendex94%
QuadExpress86%
Duraco73%

D.Market

Where input costs and freight are moving — and which open work that exposure touches.

Commodity index curves (12 mo)

indexed to 100 at start of period

Acrylic 6mm+6.2%
Steel fabrication-2.1%
LED + drivers+3.4%
China→US ocean freight-11%
Domestic labor+4.8%
Corrugated+1.2%
Acrylic ↑ affects 14 open estimatesFreight ↓ favors China routes on 2 open ballparks

Acrylic +6.2% highlighted; China→US ocean freight −11.0% is the largest favourable move.